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The top MLB rookies, prospects to target in 2023
Last year’s class of MLB prospects was special, let’s be honest.
Julio Rodriguez — aka The J-Rod Show — got called up and stole the show, earning American League Rookie of the Year honors. As a 21-year-old, the Seattle Mariners outfielder hit 28 home runs and drove in 75 runs while hitting .284.
In 2019, prospects guru and Onyx Authenticated, Inc. President Lance Fischer hyped up Rodriguez as a future star. Even as a teenager, the kid was humble and confident in his abilities.
“I knew he was going to be special,” Fischer said. “You never know how good someone’s going to be because there’s so many different factors that can throw them off.
“He has the opportunity — and he’s kind of jumping on it now — to be the face of baseball. With his personality, I think he can represent MLB better than anyone has in a really long time.”
Rodriguez, the No. 3 overall prospect entering the 2022 season, wasn’t alone in his success. No. 1-rated prospect Bobby Witt Jr. made the Kansas City Royals opening-day roster and hit 20 homers and collected 80 RBIs. Adley Rutschman of the Baltimore Orioles, the second-rated prospect, was called up in May and had a productive year with 13 home runs and a .445 slugging percentage.
Kyle Walter — who runs the Facebook group “Let’s Talk Wax: Baseball Card Prospecting Resource” — takes a deep dive multiple times each year to break down top prospects to let prospectors know which players are worth chasing for their First Bowman Chrome and Bowman Draft cards.
“I think we were really spoiled with the rookie class we had the previous two years,” Walter said. “With the 2020 shutdown, it almost created a double rookie class. I don’t think the top 15 is as strong as it was last year. … The top 10 was really loaded last year.”
This year’s list of MLB prospects is impressive, but experts who follow prospects for a living all agree the 2022 class is going to be tough to live up to.
“You hate to say that the prospects have dropped this year compared to years past,” Fischer said. “I just don’t know if you’ve got the guys like the Adleys, the Julios, the Bobby Witts, who can really be a perennial All-Star.”
MLB Pipeline/MLB.com senior writer Jim Callis agrees that this year’s top 100 list doesn’t have the star power like last year’s, but it does certainly have a lot of talented players.
“I don’t think there’s a guy who’s a household name the same way that Wander Franco or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was or Shohei Ohtani or whoever,” Callis said. “But at the same time — I don’t know if he was overshadowed by Adley Rutschman a little bit — Gunnar Henderson is pretty ridiculously good. You’re talking about a shortstop, and he might play third more because of team need, and he’s a solid runner instead of a plus. But he can steal bases and he’s probably a solid shortstop instead of a plus. We’re talking about a guy who can be a well above average hitter with well above average power. He can play anywhere — he has a plus-plus arm. Even with losing a year because of the pandemic, he’s had pretty consistent success.”
Henderson heads into the new season as the top prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com’s annual list. The Baltimore Orioles drafted Henderson in the second round in 2019 — Rutschman was picked No. 1 overall that same draft.
“To me, people must be sleeping on Gunnar Henderson,” Callis said. “I don’t know if that’s because the Orioles haven’t been as good or Rutschman kind of overshadows him a little bit. But Gunnar’s a guy that can be a .280-to-.300, hitting 30-35 homers, 20-steal guy. … I can’t say with 100 percent certainty that he’s the best guy here, but I will say, I don’t know how this year he’s not a star.
“My advice to your readers is, if Gunnar Henderson’s being undervalued a little bit, I’d go invest in some Gunnar Henderson collectibles.”
The No. 2 prospect entering the season is Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll. He made the team’s opening-day roster and will be looked at as the face of the franchise.
Surprisingly, prior to the season, Carroll’s card prices — including his 2019 Bowman Draft — were reasonable. His autographed base version of that release in a PSA 10 could be purchased for as low as $550.
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“I think he’s going to be good,” Fischer said. “He had a great year last year. The Diamondbacks seem to be putting together something special out there. If Carroll, Druw Jones and Jordan Lawlar all put it together, which I think they will, they’ll definitely give the Dodgers and Padres a run. The Diamondbacks are young, too, but they’re showing some pretty good talent with those three. I would agree that Carroll isn’t getting the love that he should with the fact that he’s with the Diamondbacks.”
Walter has been a big fan of Carroll for a long time.
“He’s just got so many tools,” Walter said. “I think a lot of the hobby gave up on him at first because he was just a little guy — he’s 5-foot-9, I think. He’s actually got a lot more pop than a lot of people thought he would have.”
New York Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez checks in at No. 3 on the top 100 list. He started the 2023 season in Triple-A.
No. 4 on the list is St. Louis Cardinals slugger Jordan Walker. He’s actually the best prospect in Fischer’s mind and also the top-rated player on Walter’s personal prospects list he puts together heading into spring training.
“I can’t find anything wrong with the kid,” Walter said. “He’s hit at every level. He’s on track age-wise with some of the superstars today like J-Rod and Wander.
“I’ve watched a lot of video on him and I think people kind of underestimated his athleticism when he was playing third base, and with [Nolan] Arenado at third base, there’s really no way that he’s ever going to play there and with Goldy at first. So when they moved him to outfield in the Fall League, I think it just came really natural to him and people saw this guy can play centerfield in the big leagues and he’s a really phenomenal athlete. He’s a lot more than just a big bat. For what he’s done as a 20-year-old in the upper minors, he hit like 37 or so doubles last year.”
Walter is thinking when Walker can turn those doubles into homers, it’s going to mean trouble for National League pitchers.
Walker’s most coveted card is his 2020 Bowman Draft base autograph, which is a super short print (SSP). Those redemption cards, which were only available through Topps, expired at the end of November 2022, so those base autos are hard to find.
Walker doesn’t have refractor autos /499 in Bowman Draft, but the colored autos were available in packs.
“I think the last time I checked they were like $700 apiece for a raw auto,” Walter said.
THE BEST OF THE REST
A couple other players in the top 10 that prospectors have been chasing are New York Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe and Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio.
The 21-year-old Volpe made the Yankees’ opening-day roster and is looked at as the next great shortstop at Yankee Stadium — nine years removed from Derek Jeter retiring. In 2022 in Double-A and Triple-A, Volpe hit .249 with 21 home runs and 65 RBIs.
Chourio, who is just 19, hit .288 combined with 20 homers and 75 RBIs in stops in Single-A, High-A and Double-A last season.
Walter likes how Chourio has handled his fast climb to the upper minors thus far.
“I’ve watched some video on him, I think he’s a little pull happy,” Walter said. “The K numbers were kind of fringe, but he was only 18 playing Double-A. The thing with Chourio is he’s only done it for one season. Volpe’s 2021 was just insane, Oswald Peraza was insane. He didn’t play as well in 2022, so waiting to see what Chourio does this season to see if can duplicate back-to-back phenom seasons.”
Fischer, who works with a lot of prospects at a young age to get autographs in his Onyx products, is extremely high on Chourio.
“I think he is a good investment,” Fischer said. “He’s young, the Brewers are thinking highly of him. There’s that chance that he’s going to start in Double-A, that’s where he ended last season. We’ll see how quickly he moves up.
“I like [Marcelo] Mayer; I like Jordan Lawlar a lot. He’s another one that’s humble and he’s got that mental piece of the game it seems like down. The talent is there, obviously, but I feel good about him.”
A couple guys with MLB bloodlines are Jackson Holliday and Druw Jones, who went No. 1 and 2 in the 2022 MLB Draft.
Holliday — the son of Matt Holliday, who played in the big leagues for 15 years — had just 64 at-bats in his first season in pro ball at the Single-A level.
“I think Jackson Holliday could be the number one guy on this list a year from now after the guys ahead of him graduate,” Callis said. “The guy got better in every phase of the game last spring. He’s very comfortable around the game. The bloodlines thing does matter. I think, one, baseball’s a sport of reps, and he can really, really hit. He can hit for power, he can hit for average. He can throw. He can play short.”
Callis calls Holliday a player who has the capability of being a five-plus tools guy. The longtime writer also thinks Holliday will be better at shortstop than Henderson in the long run.
Jones is the son of Andruw Jones, who played 17 seasons in the majors and tallied 434 home runs and won 10 Gold Gloves.
“Druw’s a good hitter, but I don’t think he’s at Jackson’s level,” Callis said.
Callis believes if Jones reaches his ceiling, he could be a 30- to 35-homer and 40-steals player.
“He’s going to put Corbin Carroll on a corner, that’s how good Druw Jones is in center,” Callis said.
Cincinnati Reds shortstop/third baseman Elly De La Cruz was a top commodity for prospects for the 2022 Bowman Chrome product. He comes in at No. 10 on this year’s top 100 list.
“I think he’s got the most electric tools in the minors,” Callis said. “I don’t think there’s many players in the minors who just flat out make you go, ‘Wow,’ just in terms of how you can hit the ball and how fast he can run. I think that’s Elly De La Cruz.”
Another guy coveted from last year’s Bowman Chrome release was James Wood. Then with the San Diego Padres, Wood was shipped to the Washington Nationals in the Juan Soto trade.
Wood, the No. 17 prospect who was drafted in 2021, has a similar build at 6-foot-6 as Aaron Judge but he’s more athletic, Callis noted.
“He went in the second round and went over slot money,” Callis said. “It’s lower levels, so it’s not rookie ball and A-ball, but he’s come out and he’s hit .326 in his first couple years. His strikeout rate’s probably around 22 percent. It’s a little bit high, but it’s not terrible. You can see the power, you can see the steals. If James Wood continues to carry the momentum as a prospect that he’s built his first two years in pro ball, James Wood could be number one on this list a year from now. He’s got that kind of upside.”
A player that Fischer really likes who is out of the top 30 is Texas’ Evan Carter. Ranked No. 41, the outfielder was the Rangers organization’s minor league player of the year in 2022.
“Carter is another guy who I wouldn’t say he’s under the radar, but I don’t know if he’s gotten enough credit for what he did last year and he had a good AFL,” Fischer said.
There are always guys out of the top 100 that Fischer keeps a close eye on and is impressed with.
“I would say still watch out for Roderick Arias, he’s a Yankee,” Fischer said. “I think last year he was getting his feet wet. This year could be a season where he’s got a full season and he has a chance to put it together. He’s one name to definitely keep an eye on. Another guy who was the top international kid back in January is Ethan Salas. A lot of people thought the Twins were going to get him and in the last minute San Diego was kind of able to pull off a coup and there’s a lot of hype around him. I don’t know if he's in the top 100 yet, but by the end of the season, he’ll be in the top 100, no doubt.”
Salas is just 16 years old and isn’t projected to make it to the majors until 2028. The Cuban catcher is the Padres’ No. 3-rated prospect even at that young of age. San Diego has a really young farm club with its top five prospects being 19 or younger.
“It’s a super young crop of guys that are in this next round,” Fischer said. “It’s just going to be interesting to see how it pans out, because young guys are risky.”
A few more international prospects to keep an eye on are Chicago White Sox outfielder Oscar Colas, Chicago Cubs outfielder Kevin Alcantara and Minnesota Twins outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez, who is Callis’ deep sleeper.
“I think these guys, they take a while to percolate unless you’re like Wander Franco or Vlad who just dominate from day one,” Callis said. “I think with the pandemic shutdown in ’20, it set guys back because they didn’t get to play.”
Card prices for many of the prospects are still extremely high even though the value for ultra-modern cards have dipped.
“The cards are still crazy,” Fischer said. “Jackson Chourio cards are going for quite a bit. It seems like there’s a lot more risk with some of the guys that are out there. I think some of the safer bets are Jordan Lawlar, Corbin Carroll and when Ethan [Salas] has his cards. I would be hesitant to spend a lot of money on the current guys.”
