Sports Card Dealers
COUNTDOWN TO THE NATIONAL: Downturn in economy, sports card market has collectors looking for deals at 2023 National
The last time the National Sports Collectors Convention was held in Rosemont, Ill., the Donald E. Stephens Convention Center was jam packed.
With the 2020 show cancelled due to the pandemic, the 2021 National was the place to be for longtime collectors, newcomers to the industry and investors.
Thirst for the hobby was seemingly at an all-time high.
After attendees came in droves to Atlantic City, N.J. for last year’s show, industry insiders, dealers and collectors are anticipating big numbers again this year for the 43rd annual National, despite a recent downturn in the sports cards market.
“The National’s going to be buzzing and cranking,” said Jesse Craig, vice president, strategic partnerships at PWCC Marketplace.
Derek Grady, Heritage Auctions’ Vice President of Sports Auctions, has watched interest in the hobby stay strong since last year’s successful National.
“The main thing I hear is that the shows are busier than ever, according to several show promoters,” Grady said. “The people buying wax, chasing rookie cards, we still kept a lot of these people, even though they may have bought in at high points on some of this stuff. The hobby base has increased for sure.
“We’re seeing a ton of new faces, a ton of new people, and they enjoy it as a hobby. So, maybe even if they lost some money on some things, they got caught up during the pandemic and after the pandemic, I think they’re adjusting. They realize, you don’t make money on everything, but you still enjoy the hobby. The hobby didn’t burn you, you burned yourself when you paid too much for something.”
Is there a chance this year’s event could eclipse the 1991 National in Anaheim that holds the record of over 100,000 attendees?
“I would not be at all surprised,” NSCC show manager John Broggi said. “Ticket sales are increasing, slightly ahead of last year and the biggest ticket sale time started [in mid-June]. We will probably sell out of VIPs just before the show opens.”
According to Broggi, the show floor will use nearly 600,000 square feet, which is believed to be the largest area ever for a National. Last year in Atlantic City, the floor plan was 475,000 square feet. Dealers and collectors voiced their opinions that the main floor was too congested, making it hard to maneuver.
The entire bottom level of the convention center for this year’s show will be filled. The National has been held at the Donald E. Stephens Convention Center 13 times. In 2021, Hall F was used as a staging area. But this year it will be packed with dealer and corporate booths as well as the autograph pavilion.
This year’s National will feature 660 dealer booths consisting of 352 different dealers. That’s about 40 more booths than last year’s show, noted Broggi.
However, there are still plenty of dealers wanting to get a table at the big show.
“We’ve had several dealers inquire to see if we had any extra booth space for sale,” said Scott Mahlum, owner of Mill Creek Sports in Mill Creek, Wash. “A lot of people are on the outside looking in, which is a great sign.”
There are around 70 corporate sponsors.
“The corporate presence has increased substantially,” Broggi said. “There are so many new, growing companies that want to participate in the show that we had to make space for them. We had additional corporate companies in Atlantic City last year and they all wanted to come to Chicago, but we didn’t have the room.”
New companies popping up is another indication that the hobby is solid. That’s good for everyone involved with the industry.
“We’re turning away both dealers and corporate, because we have no space,” Broggi said. “It’s been completely filled. The dealer floor, even with the increase in the number of booths, was filled before we left Atlantic City last year, and the corporate area has been sold probably for the last three or four months.”
STATE OF THE HOBBY
During the pandemic, prices in the hobby soared. Vintage was hot. Modern and ultra-modern were just as desirable.
But over the last two years, prices have fluctuated, with a big dip in modern-card prices and values over the last year.
“We are back to pre-pandemic and some things might even be lower,” Grady said. “It just went up too fast, too quick. I don’t know if people know where the bottom is. They don’t know, where does the Tom Brady Contenders sell for next? Where does the LeBron RPA sell for next? If you keep going down, where is the bottom?”
That being said, Grady is a firm believer that there will be plenty of activity at this year’s show.
“I think people are going to be spending money and there will be buying and selling,” Grady said. “You see a lot more people doing trades, too. … I think it’s going to be a very robust show.
“I think it’s going to be a great show, I just don’t think anything’s going to be cheap. I think the hobby marches on. Even if the economy’s down, people are still out there with their expendable income and maybe they adjust it a little bit, but there’s more people in the pool now. There’s so many more people in the hobby than there were prior to the pandemic, so I think prices are going to stay really good.”
What is the state of the hobby entering this year’s National?
“I think what we’re finding is the rare stuff, the good stuff, whether it’s memorabilia or whether it’s blue-chip cards — the Ruths, the Cobbs, the Mantle rookies, the Mays, Aaron, Clemente rookies, the low-pop commons — that stuff is still rock solid,” Grady said. “The modern has definitely dropped significantly. Michael Jordan rookie cards have come down, but the signed cards, the pack-pulled signed cards, are doing very well. The modern market is down pretty significantly as a whole.”
Collectors CEO Nat Turner feels like there’s a different vibe heading into this year’s National. The prices during the 2021 and ’22 shows were off the hook on big segments of the market.
“The new cards, the prices have come down a lot on like the Panini and Topps stuff,” Turner said. “It’s less of the flippers and it feels like it’s going to be more about the true collector event, whereas a year or two ago it was a lot of like 100 grand for a Justin Herbert rookie and stuff. I feel it’s shifting more to vintage and ’90s and less ultra-modern.”
Craig — who has worked at PWCC, which was recently purchased by Fanatics, since January 2019 — feels like the market is good from a mid- to low-end perspective.
“I think we’ve kind of hit — I don’t want to call it the floor — but it feels like things have really settled down,” Craig said. “I think there’s been a shakeup a little bit in the last eight months in the space with some companies consolidating a little bit — obviously, us included — and people right now are really looking forward to The National and getting back to it.”
According to Craig, leading up to The National is typically a slower selling time for PWCC since dealers and collectors are hoarding inventory to bring to the show. Also, there’s a lull in major professional sports action with the NBA and NHL just wrapping up their seasons, the NFL still months away and the MLB season is just one-third of the way into its schedule.
“From a modern card perspective, which has really driven our space the last few years, there’s not a ton going on until The National kicks off,” Craig said. “Once The National kicks off, you’ve got preseason football, NBA is right around the corner, you’re getting close to playoffs for baseball, hockey’s almost around the corner as well. That’s when everything starts flowing again.”
With the current market, longtime vintage collector Mike Moynihan — who hosts the Golden Age of Cardboard podcast — believes it’s a good time to acquire some deals.
“I’m starting to see this trend, especially with vintage baseball, that the demand is lower so prices are starting to reflect that, especially on low-end stuff,” Moynihan said. “So, I always try to mix my National purchases — try to buy one or two big cards and then try to fill in holes in the collection with little stuff. Instead of paying $25 or $30 for those things, now it feels like they’re $10 a card, which is a good trend that I like.
“I think we’re not necessarily heading back to pre-pandemic levels in prices, but we’re definitely closer to that, and that’s a trend I think will continue just as long as we kind of have the macroeconomic angst that we have in the world. Sports cards are a discretionary item. Unless you’re in the business — and that’s very few people — most people in the hobby, it’s a discretionary thing. That money is getting spent on eggs and milk and gasoline and other stuff.”
Kit Young, who has been a dealer at all but two National’s during his career, believes the amount of activity and money spent at this year’s show will be down.
“The craziness of two years ago, pandemic stuff is long gone,” Young said. “The amount of money thrown at dealers was crazy. The pricing got arguably crazy. That changed at least a year ago, and I like it. Things weren’t going to keep going up at 25 percent every six months. The presumed values of Jordan rookies, Aaron rookies, Roses and so on, it wasn’t sustainable. We don’t see that at all.
“I’ve talked to some big dealers, they’re all saying the same thing, money’s not as crazy. But the market itself is very healthy. I’ll tell you, if you’ve got good inventory and pricing is going to be reasonable now, there’s tons of collectors. We’re having a huge first six months of the year, our company, because we try to be middle-of-the-road pricing — and usually are, frankly — but it’s quality of inventory combined with history, customer base and so on.”
WHAT’S HOT, WHAT’S NOT
According to industry folks, vintage cards and memorabilia are very steady.
“Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth autographs, that stuff is still doing well,” Mahlum said. “Autographs are still doing good. But cards — I’d say 1980 and new stuff — definitely slowed down and went down in pricing a lot.”
Mill Creek Sports, which specializes in athlete autographs, had an exclusive signing with Cincinnati Reds rookie Elly De La Cruz late in 2022. The company has some of the only baseballs, bats and rookie cards signed by De La Cruz. When the young star burst onto the MLB scene in early June, Mill Creek cashed in on selling hundreds of autographed items.
Mahlum said an autographed 2022 1st Bowman prospects card of De La Cruz went from $120 to $250 in the first couple days following his resounding MLB debut.
“I think Elly De La Cruz is going to be on every table,” Moynihan said. “You’re going to have your traditional stuff moving. Mantles will be selling and Aaron and Mays and Ruth and Gehrig and all those guys. I just think stalwarts of the hobby remain that.
“I still don’t think that wax is moving. I think you’re going to see sales this year like you haven’t in four-five years. I think you’re going to see blowout pricing on late Saturday/Sunday. 2023 Topps Series 2, they’ll be trying to move all of that that they can, for example, because it just came out. I just think that new wax is going to be an opportunity that we haven’t had in years.”
Since The National is back in Chicagoland, Turner is anticipating Michael Jordan cards and memorabilia will be hot. But he sees a good mix of sports being popular during the show.
“I think you’re going to see a lot more ’90s investment and vintage,” Turner said. “I think you’re going to see collectors on the vintage side, probably even more than last year, if I had to guess. You’re going to see Jordan, you’re going to see LeBron. I think in baseball you’re going to see some of the rookies that are doing well, Elly and some of the new guys, Shohei.
“I think the high-end modern football and basketball, everything’s going to look like it’s on sale for singles. I think it’s going to be 50 percent lower than it was last year. I think wax will be there, too. But, again, this is a good thing. Justin Herbert rookies never should have been higher than Tom Brady rookies, and they were. I think you’re going to see that flow through.
“I think people are realizing that betting on a rookie is really risky. Over the course of like 10 years, only a couple of them will make financial sense. If you’re speculating and playing on in-season and he had a good game, those guys are going to get smoked, and have been lately. They’re left holding the bag on a guy like Cade Cunningham or Kyler Murray.
“I think you’re seeing a ton more set collectors, vintage. The blue-chip players and the eras where, if you go on Card Ladder and look, there’s vintage and the ’90s and it’s largely unaffected. Ultra-modern has done a complete lap to back where they were.”
At last year’s National, 1970s and ’80s vintage wax were down after a significant number of those products soared in price during the pandemic. Grady has always considered vintage wax a blue-chip investment. He tends to buy undervalued players and shies away from prospecting.
“You have to look and do some research and don’t follow the trends,” Grady said. “I would go against the trend. I made that mistake when I was a kid, I was buying what everybody else was buying at the same time and I should have looked in different pockets and say, ‘Wait a minute,’ and then that stuff starts taking off. I got into signed rookie cards early, but not early enough where I could take complete advantage of buying ’52 Mantles for under 20 grand signed. I got in a little bit later.”
Craig also sees the vintage market remaining strong. That bodes well for longtime dealers at The National.
“There’s more blue chips in vintage and it’s the more stable sector of our space,” Craig said. “From a modern perspective, I think part of the issue is there’s just too much supply that’s hit the market in the last eight months, but the economy’s the economy and we don’t know why everyone’s specifically selling an asset at whatever set time. I think there’s just too much supply that’s hit the market in the past six to 12 months that’s caused some of these ultra-high-end modern cards to suffer a bit.
“But I do think a lot of these have settled down and I think that we’re at a point now where moving forward I think everyone kind of knows what’s what and we’ve kind of had that bubble burst, per se, and we’re much more of a stable space in the industry.”
— Greg Bates is a freelance contributor and editor-at-large for Sports Collectors Digest. He can be reached at gregabates@gmail.com.
